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Yemen breaking the blockade and beginning a new phase

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LONDON – How Ansarallah succeeded in breaking the Saudi-imposed air blockade on Yemen is worthy of attention. The process began with an Ansarallah delegation’s trip to Tehran to attend the funeral of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, who was assassinated in a joint U.S.-Israeli air raid on his office on February 28.

The delegation flew from Sanaa International Airport to Tehran but was forced to land at Hodeidah Airport on its return after Saudi jets bombed Sanaa airport.

The delegation’s journey to Tehran and its return marked the beginning of a new phase in line with broader regional developments. The message was clear: the emerging balance of power no longer allowed the Saudi-imposed air blockade on Yemen to continue.

Amid the war between the United States and Iran, the message was that any settlement must be comprehensive and include the entire Axis of Resistance, allowing it to exercise its rights without being denied recognition. The new equation became one in which a blockade would be met with a blockade, and the continuation of the blockade on Yemen would lead to countermeasures affecting the other side.

Developments then progressed to the point where the balance of power on the ground began to shift in favor of Ansarallah, representing the extension of the Axis of Resistance towards control of the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Ansarallah began advancing and taking control of the western coast of the Red Sea, reaching beyond Mokha. This advance extended to a point in the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the island opposite it.

This development was not coincidental. Rather, it formed part of a broader process aimed at changing the balance of power in the region. Ultimately, the situation developed to the point where the Axis of Resistance came to control the Strait of Hormuz, while the Bab al-Mandab Strait also came under the its control. 

The combination of control and influence over the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab means that approximately 40% of global energy supplies have come under the influence of the Axis of Resistance. Having this degree of influence over the world’s most important energy corridors makes the bloc a far more influential force globally. This shift in the balance of power is ushering all resistance fronts into a new phase.

We are facing a new situation unlike any previous one in terms of the scale of its influence and its capacity to alter existing equations. No previous situation has reached this level of influence. It could bring the Axis of Resistance to a level of influence equal to, or perhaps greater than, that of the U.S.-Israeli alliance, despite the latter’s military and intelligence superiority. 

This American-Israeli superiority, which has severely struck the resistance fronts in Gaza, Lebanon, and the West Bank, has now been met by a corresponding counterweight. Control over the Bab al-Mandab is overturning the balance of power, with consequences for the Israeli occupation entity as a whole. The importance of these developments is that they do not concern military confrontation alone; they also affect strategic and economic interests connected to energy and global trade.

This is occurring alongside a transformation in the image of the Israeli occupation entity in global public opinion, where it has become increasingly rejected in the conscience of the world. One indication is that a British minister has declared that Gaza represents a reproach to the global conscience. 

Similarly, the actions of settlers in the West Bank, including acts of destruction and violations, have come under condemnation, to the point that some Western officials have described them as terrorists. These developments are new, and they would not have emerged in the same form were it not for the changes that have taken place in the balance of power and influence in the region.

Control over and the ability to influence global energy supplies do not affect the military dimension alone; it also extends to the global economy. Influence over energy supplies affects energy prices and consequently the prices of consumer goods, including food items and metals. It may also have repercussions for global stock exchanges and financial markets. Therefore, control over the corridors that affect the supply of energy, metals, fertilizers, and food gives the Axis of Resistance greater capacity to influence the global economy and financial markets.

Taken together, these developments could constitute a turning point in the course of the world and in the nature of the balance of power that exists within it. We may be facing the possibility of building a new world in which the balance of power differs from that which prevailed during previous periods. In this new world, the resistance bloc could play an influential role. Accordingly, what began as steps to break the blockade on Yemen could extend beyond the borders of Yemen and the region, becoming part of a broader shift in the global balance of power.

The United States does not want to enter this war because direct American involvement would mean preventing US ships from passing through the Red Sea. Washington also does not want to become involved in two wars simultaneously.

The United States is therefore compelled to pursue a piecemeal settlement, one that does not encompass all fronts, including the Yemeni front. There may be a settlement to the U.S.-Iran conflict, but the Yemeni issue itself must ultimately be resolved through a Saudi-Yemeni dialogue.

However, acknowledging the Yemeni situation and the effective control that Ansarallah exercises over parts of Yemen entail an American recognition of the new reality. It would also form part of a broader recognition of Iran and the larger resistance bloc.

The strikes against Saudi Arabia’s oil and energy infrastructure are part of the Yemeni pressure campaign against the Saudi Kingdom. On the one hand, Saudi Arabia is being placed under pressure from the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. On the other hand, pressure on global energy supplies creates additional pressure on Saudi Arabia to accept the situation in Yemen, including the role of Ansarallah.

Yemen is following a principle of responding to siege with siege. When the Yemeni capital is attacked, Yemen also strikes Riyadh’s energy infrastructure. 

The persistence of the Yemeni position, combined with Saudi Arabia’s inability to overcome Yemen and the failure of other parties to enter the fighting alongside the kingdom, will ultimately give the Yemenis the upper hand. This could lead to a settlement that recognizes the existence and role of Ansarallah in Yemen. This, in turn, will serve the broader regional context: a U.S.-Iranian agreement that will acknowledges the new balance of power and recognize the right of the Axis of Resistance to exist and maintain its position in the region.

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