2026 Week 10 Preview: Virginia Tech Hokies @ SMU Mustangs

Game notes

• Time and date: Friday, November 6 at 7:00 p.m. ET

• Network: ESPN

• Location: Gerald J. Ford Stadium — Dallas, TX

• Spread: SMU (-6)

• Over/under: 56.5

• All-time series: SMU leads, 2-1

• Last meeting: SMU 28, Virginia Tech 25 — September 21, 1974

• Current streak: SMU, 2 (1973-74)

Setting the scene

While No. 1 Miami (FL) and No. 14 Wake Forest are the only ACC teams that reside in the AP Top 25, the conference title race is far from finished.

There are five two-loss teams lurking right behind, and two of them clash Friday night in Dallas. It’s the first meeting between SMU and Virginia Tech as ACC opponents, however, it’s a familiar head coaching matchup: Rhett Lashlee and James Franklin stood on opposite sidelines as recently as 2024 in the College Football Playoff.

Advertisement

There’s plenty on the line for the bowl eligible opponents. A win would do wonders for remaining in the ACC race, especially for SMU, which can still capture a tiebreaker against Wake Forest. But a third conference loss is essentially an elimination in a 17-team league.

Virginia Tech Hokies outlook

Virginia Tech (6-2, 3-2 ACC) can make another statement on the road after its bye week.

The Hokies haven’t rattled off seven wins in a regular season since 2019, but that streak could end Friday in year one of the James Franklin era. Virginia Tech is fresh off its biggest win under Franklin, taking down Clemson 20-16 in Death Valley on Oct. 24.

Advertisement

Close games have been commonplace for the Hokies this season. Each of their last six contests were decided by 10 points or fewer. Three featured lead changes in the final five minutes, while another ended on a missed field goal attempt that would have resulted in a lead change.

The restoration of Virginia Tech football can be attributed to the passing game. Quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer followed Franklin from Penn State and has drastically improved in his junior campaign. Grunkemeyer has connected on an efficient 71.4 percent of attempts — seventh nationally among quarterbacks with 100 attempts — and has delivered 17 touchdowns against two interceptions. Grunkemeyer has eclipsed 300 yards three times and finished seven of his eight starts without throwing a pick.

Two receivers have carried a bulk of the load. Wide receiver Que’Sean Brown ranks atop the team with 51 receptions and 685 receiving yards, and he’s secured at least five receptions in all eight games. Tight end Luke Reynolds has also been a matchup nightmare for defenses. Reynolds’ 50 receptions rank first and his 491 receiving yards ranks third among all FBS tight ends. While a bulk of his production occurred in September, his outing against Clemson was a productive one, snagging two touchdowns on seven receptions.

The Hokies aren’t as adept in the run game, where they check in at 111th in the FBS with 3.7 yards per carry. They don’t incorporate much quarterbaack mobility and primarily rely on the duo of Jeffrey Overton Jr. and Marcellous Hawkins Jr. Overton, a common weapon in the receiving game, showed the extent of his powers in a 209-yard rushing explosion against Boston College. Hawkins has been a steady secondary back, and he’s tied for the team lead with five rushing touchdowns.

Advertisement

Virginia Tech only surrendered more than 26 points once this season, and that was a Friday night matchup against Pittsburgh. The Hokies’ defense has been a positive for the team, tied for 35th in points allowed and ranked 27th in yards allowed per game. Their strength involves limiting the run, where they give up just 93.4 yards per game on a 3.0 average.

Sacks heavily factor into that total, and Virginia Tech is the best in the ACC and the sixth-best in the nation at getting to the quarterback, producing 3.4 sacks per game. It’s a defensive end led effort. Aycen Stevens ranks first in the conference with 8.0 sacks, while his fellow defensive ends Cortez Harris and Mylachi Williams have 5.0 and 4.5, respectively.

The Hokies haven’t been as strong on the back end, but they prevent explosive plays well. No team has recorded a 50-yard completion on this defense all season. But what Virginia Tech needs to improve upon is its turnover output. The Hokies forced just five takeaways through eight games, causing the team to enter Friday with a minus-4 in the turnover battle this season.

SMU Mustangs outlook

SMU (6-2, 4-2 ACC) dropped from the rankings after a heartbreaking 30-27 loss at Syracuse last weekend. It was only the Mustangs’ fourth conference defeat since joining the ACC, and the third in which they held a lead in the final minute. However, SMU has never lost back-to-back ACC games and owns an 11-0 record in ACC play at home, giving Rhett Lashlee’s team the perfect opportunity to bounce back and remain in the conference title race.

Advertisement

Slow starts have been the Mustangs’ kryptonite. In their last five ACC games, they haven’t scored more than 13 points in a half or entered the break with a lead larger than three. However, they’ve won each of their last five second halves, finishing a plus-68 over that span.

SMU’s offense is led by Kevin Jennings, who is one of seven passers averaging over 300 yards per game. This season has been a masterclass in efficiency for the senior, who is completing passes at a 73.7 percent clip — the third-highest rate in the country among quarterbacks with 100 attempts. Jennings has also thrown 152 consecutive passes without an interception, with his last misfire coming in the first quarter of a Sept. 26 matchup against Missouri State.

The Mustangs’ receiver room is as deep as they come, with five different players over the 200-yard threshold. Yamir Knight is the leader with 44 receptions for 523 yards, while Yannick Smith, Jalen Cooper, and Jalen Hale can also pose as explosive threats for an offense that ranks fifth nationally in 50+ yard receptions. Tight ends Randy Pittman Jr. and Theo Melin Öhrstrom are also incorporated into the passing game, and they tie for the team lead with four receptions apiece.

Unlike SMU’s first ACC defeat at Louisville, last Saturday’s loss to Syracuse was largely determined in the trenches. The Mustangs uncharacteristically allowed six sacks, accounting for 43 percent of their season total. Additionally, they struggled to create space for the running backs, which never broke off an explosive gain. Kendrick Raphael has posted three 100-yard games already in ACC play, and he can also do damage out of the backfield as a receiving option.

Advertisement

SMU’s defense didn’t necessarily have a bad outing at Syracuse, limiting the Orange to 5.9 yards per passing attempt and 3.7 yards per rush. But the Mustangs surrendered conversions on all four of Syracuse’s fourth down attempts, allowing the Orange to sustain otherwise lost drives. A veteran defensive line full of super seniors is the strength of the unit. SMU ranks 15th nationally with 2.9 sacks per game, and eighth-year senior Marques White leads the way with 5.5 sacks, while the rest of the sacks are quite evenly distributed.

The pressure goes hand-in-hand with a strong passing defense, and SMU ranks 28th nationally in fewest passing yards allowed at 182 per game. That is the most improved element of the Mustangs from last year, but losing starting strong safety Tyren Polley for the year could make things difficult down the road. Sael Reyes stepped up last game with 10 tackles in his second start of the season, while Jimmy Wyrick recorded eight from the other safety spot.

Lastly, turnovers have been a significant determinant in SMU results this season. The Mustangs lost the turnover battle 5-0 in their two losses, and they’re the only bowl eligible team at a minus-5 or worse this season.

Prediction

These 6-2 teams are structured somewhat similarly: strong passing attacks with tight end utilization, dominant defensive fronts that repeatedly get to the quarterback, and solid defenses hampered by poor turnover margins.

Advertisement

Short weeks oftentimes favor the home team, and SMU remains perfect against ACC opponents at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Given SMU’s discrepancy between first and second half performance, Virginia Tech may enter halftime with the lead, but the Mustangs ultimately rally behind Kevin Jennings in the fourth quarter to secure a one-score win on The Hilltop.

Prediction: SMU 30, Virginia Tech 24

Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: Sports.yahoo.com