The current season of state Assembly elections enters the most crucial phase on Thursday, when voters in all the 234 constituencies in Tamil Nadu and 152 of the 294 in West Bengal will go to the booths to pick their rulers for the next five years.
Tamil Nadu has witnessed a strict bipolar polity in the last 60 years or so concentrated around the two Dravidian majors, the DMK and the AIADMK. Various political forces, including the Congress which once ruled the state, have found it convenient to be an adjunct to either of the fronts. However, the entry of the Tamil Vetri Kazhagam of popular actor Vijay appears to have slightly changed the electoral equations in the state.
DMK leader and chief minister M.K. Stalin has made substantial progress in making the election a Tamil Nadu vs New Delhi fight, portraying the AIADMK as a stooge of the BJP to help the saffron party make a mark in the Dravidian heartland. He has used every tool that came handy, including the recent Union government’s attempt to introduce delimitation of Lok Sabha constituencies based on the 2011 census under the garb of implementing women’s reservation in legislatures and the latest developments in Bihar. Another term is required to complete the massive development projects his government has started, he believes.
Edappadi K. Palaniswami, AIADMK’s former chief minister and the leader of the NDA in the state, however, insists that his party’s alliance with the BJP cannot be used as a mask to “cover up corruption under the DMK regime”. He also claims that Mr Stalin has not been able to meet the election promises he had made to the people. As for Vijay, most observers agree that he might win his seat and will cut the votes in many constituencies but are not sure who will be the ultimate loser. The actor-politician had to fight too many odds ahead of this election; he might find those lessons extremely valuable when he comes back to fight the 2031 elections.
The TMC led by CM Mamata Banerjee holds a structural edge in West Bengal even though BJP has clawed its way back into contention mainly by weaponising public anger against the TMC government. The TMC is banking mainly on the welfare schemes like Lakshmir Bhandar, Swasthya Sathi and Duare Sarkar and the overwhelming support of minorities. It is not for no reason that Ms Banerjee made the fight with the Election Commission, perceived to be dancing to the tune of the BJP, a major campaign topic. That more than 59 lakh names remain dropped from the electoral rolls post SIR could resonate with the ordinary voter.
The BJP has leveraged its core Hindutva plank with a sharp focus on alleged illegal infiltration from Bangladesh. It also hammers the TMC over a string of corruption charges. The party, like the TMC, is wooing the rising number of female voters in the state by promising a monthly assistance of Rs 3,000, compared with the Rs 2,000 offered by the TMC.
Both the parties are wary of the revival attempts of the Left Front which could end up playing spoiler (“vote-cutter”). The reds are contesting in 252 Assembly seats having fielded candidates in almost all the 54 seats in North Bengal, an area that has emerged as a BJP stronghold over the years. If the Left eats into anti-TMC votes, it will directly hurt the BJP. However, if the Left and the Congress manage to impact minority-dominated seats, the TMC could be in trouble. The AIMIM, claiming support in the Muslim areas, has also the potential to harm the TMC. It remains to be seen how the small players impact the majors in the West Bengal election.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: deccanchronicle.com
