After starting the season 1-4, it looked like Western Kentucky’s streak of consistency was in serious jeopardy.
The Hilltoppers have won eight or nine games in each of the last five campaigns, and they’ve won at least six conference games in five of Tyson Helton’s seven campaigns as head coach, but a sluggish start put Western Kentucky in uncharted waters.
Two wins later and the Hilltoppers control their own destiny for a spot in the Conference USA Championship game.
Nonetheless, it’s Delaware that is a 2.5-point road favorite for this Tuesday night showdown.
Delaware vs. Western Kentucky prediction, odds
Every team in the bottom rung of the Group of 6 is going to be inconsistent, but these two teams take it to a new level.
Delaware’s last two outings were a 33-30 loss to Middle Tennessee State, No. 129 in the latest SP+ power rankings, and then a 61-38 throttling of Missouri State at home.
It’s not much prettier for the Hilltoppers, who have a terrible loss to New Mexico State, No. 124 in the country, per SP+, and then consecutive wins over Missouri State and Sam Houston State.
It’s hard to glean too much from these erratic results, but the one thing that does stick out is that Western Kentucky’s defense may be improving.
The Hilltoppers’ statistical profile looks ugly — they rank 116th in yards per play allowed and 117th in points conceded per game (not including FCS opponents) — but there are a couple of games skewing those numbers. Western Kentucky was walloped by Georgia and Indiana by a combined score of 108-20 in their first two games.
Against teams in their conference, the results are much more palatable.
Western Kentucky struggled against New Mexico State, allowing 5.9 yards per play, but they dropped that number to 5.1 against Missouri State and then 3.1 against Sam Houston State last time out.
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Those teams are bad, but it’s not like Delaware is much better.
And while Western Kentucky’s defensive numbers seem to be headed in the right direction, the Blue Hens just gave up 7.4 yards per play to Missouri State and 6.8 yards per play in a loss to Middle Tennessee State.
I’ll take the points with the bad team that has at least shown some signs of improvement lately.
The Play: Western Kentucky +2.5 (-110, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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