How Iran learned to stop worrying and live with war

Over the past year, the nature of the Iran-Israel conflict has undergone a significant transformation. What previously appeared as a series of isolated crises is increasingly taking on the characteristics of a sustained, direct confrontation. In this context, Operation True Promise 5, announced by Tehran in June, has become evidence of a new reality which demonstrates that the previous mechanisms of deterrence have become ineffective.

The new round of escalation was triggered by Israel’s fierce strikes on Lebanon. For Tehran, Lebanon is not only an important element of regional balance, but also part of its system of influence. For Israel, the problem is not Lebanon itself, but rather the fact that Lebanon is part of a broader system of Iranian influence. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his team want to curb this influence at all costs. 

Iran’s Operation True Promise 5 should be viewed in this context. It was a response not only to the strikes on Lebanon, but also to a broader process of erosion of the old rules of the game. Iran is demonstrating that it no longer considers itself bound by the old logic of caution which involved a delayed, limited, and measured response.

Over the past year, Tehran has adapted to continuous escalation. While in the old days, a strike on Iranian territory would have been perceived as a transition to an entirely new reality, now this reality no longer surprises anyone. Sanctions, sabotage, assassinations, attacks on infrastructure, and pressure on military and industrial facilities have become commonplace. Despite its many internal problems, Iran has learned to live on constant alert.