Is St Kilda’s spending spree paying off? The numbers are in

On face value, it would seem St Kilda have not improved this year, despite their headline-grabbing, off-season spending spree.

The Saints sit in 12th spot with a 5-7 win-loss record; the same return as at this time last season. However, they do boast a 10 per cent better percentage (102.3), healthier now than the ninth-placed Magpies and even the seventh-placed Western Bulldogs, who booted goals for fun last year.

They average more than seven points per game more this season (89.6) than last, and have fractionally tightened defensively, conceding an average of 87.6 points per game, despite key defender and co-captain Callum Wilkie needing more help. However, they are ranked 10th and ninth respectively in these categories, highlighting why they remain mid-table.

They have slipped slightly in scores-from-turnover differential, but importantly have vaulted from 10th to fourth in scores-from-clearances differential. Yet one win against a top-10 side – Greater Western Sydney – encapsulates their tale.

As one close league observer noted on Monday, for all the Blues’ troubles, they are only one win behind the Saints. So, too, are the rebuilding West Coast Eagles.

“I didn’t expect them to be a contender this year,” dual North Melbourne premiership player and prominent commentator David King told SEN.

“I think the teams that are around the mark that St Kilda are at really find it hard to beat top four, top six teams. The next progression is you win one out of every three, and then you win one out of every two, and then you’re in the hunt.

“I think they’re miles from that. I never thought they were a flag contender this year, I’ve never had them in the top four to six teams. So, they are where they are right now because they’re just not quite there.”

The multi-million dollar summer additions of Tom De Koning, Jack Silvagni, Sam Flanders and Liam Ryan, while splashing the cash on Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera to make him the highest-paid player in the competition, were meant to carry the Saints to September, perhaps even top six, but surely at least for one of the bottom rungs of a now top-10 finals system.

They were confronted with a bruising schedule to open the season, and injuries have not helped. Five interstate trips, including back-to-back games in Adelaide, were not ideal, although the Saints did beat Port Adelaide and were unlucky not to topple Adelaide.

They also faced the Gold Coast in the sapping Darwin humidity, and are now in the midst of a run of games against premiership favourites Fremantle, Hawthorn and Sydney.

They have missed the run and dare of Wanganeen-Milera (calf), who is in line to return this week, while Mitch Owens (calf) and Liam Ryan (calf) may also face the Swans. Flanders (ruptured Achilles tendon) is now out for the rest of the season. Small forward Jack Higgins (knee) has also been missed.

De Koning continues to divide opinion. The athletic ruckman, on a contract worth up to $1.7 million a season, is not the match-winner some had expected. But coach Ross Lyon jumped to his defence after the stinging loss to Hawthorn last Thursday, pointing out De Koning ranked high across the league in score involvements. He booted two goals against the Hawks.

“He’ll just continue to grow and grow – it takes a while to embed people into your program,” Lyon said.

Lyon insisted as far back as the loss to the Crows, leaving his team at 2-4, that the Saints had improved.

The absence of key forward Max King continues to hurt. He is one of the great ifs of the competition, but the Saints remain confident better days await.

The versatile Silvagni impressed with three goals when thrown forward against the Hawks.

The hard work on development is showing. Darcy Wilson, Max Hall, Mattaes Phillipou and Hugo Garcia have made strong progress, the Saints desperate to retain the uncontracted Wilson who has attracted considerable interest elsewhere.

Lyon knows the AFL is a harsh win-and-loss business. And the challenges will continue to come.

Champion Data says they have the sixth-toughest run home to September, giving supporters and naysayers ammunition to state their opposing cases. It shapes as a fascinating few months, with Lyon contracted until the end of 2027.

Will the back half of this season shape whether the Saints offer him a contract extension next summer? That raises another burning question: is assistant Corey Enright a potential successor?

“We have been in a lot of games, we just haven’t got over the line,” Lyon said.

“We have been pounding the rock, to borrow that term, we have been stacking it, we have been standing up, interstate, against quality, beating some teams around us quite well … but we need to improve. That sits with me, it doesn’t sit lightly.”

The run home ladder: Your team’s road ahead – from hardest to easiest

Essendon have the toughest fixture of all 18 clubs for the remainder of the season, leaving interim coach Dean Solomon with an uphill battle to display his credentials if he decides to apply for the job.

According to Champion Data, which assesses the difficulty of each club’s run home by assigning a weighting to the opposition based on both teams’ percentage, the Bombers have the most arduous fixture in the second half of the season, while Hawthorn and Carlton have the easiest run home.

Solomon’s opening match as interim coach on Sunday night did not result in a Carlton-like bump; the banged-up Bombers lost by five goals to the West Coast Eagles in Perth and have just one win from their past 25 games.

The Bombers play the Blues, who have three straight wins under interim coach Josh Fraser since parting ways with Michael Voss, at the MCG on King’s Birthday eve, followed by the bye, before playing North Melbourne, St Kilda, Brisbane at the ’Gabba, the Giants and Hawthorn before the end of July.

Nine of Essendon’s last 10 games are against teams firmly in the premiership or finals hunt under the new top-10 model. Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, Greater Western Sydney and Fremantle complete the top five of teams facing the toughest run to September.

Essendon great Matthew Lloyd said he did not expect Solomon, his former premiership teammate, to replace Brad Scott, who was sacked last Tuesday with 18 months left on his contract.

“It’s rare that the interim coach gets the job, I know we have seen it before if they can get on a run, so he would need to get on a real roll to get that job, otherwise I think it goes somewhere else,” Lloyd told the AFL website.

“He is the perfect man for this time because he is very selfless, very much an Essendon man. He is just doing what is right for the club right now. If he gets the job, I am sure he would be rapt, for sure, but I am sure that is not front of mind for him at the moment.”

Hours after Scott’s departure Hird put his hand up to return to Essendon as coach, 11 years after he left the club.

An industry source with knowledge of events at Tullamarine, speaking anonymously because the process has not been finalised, say Hird would endorse Solomon as a prospective Essendon senior coach, not only for his coaching but ability to unify the club.

The same industry sources said if Hird was unsuccessful, he could be open to being an assistant coach to Solomon.

Solomon has yet to declare whether he will pursue the top job. After Sunday night’s loss he attempted to brush off questions about the potential return of Hird.

“I honestly have shut down with all my social media … I’ve sort of had to control what I can control, focus on what I can focus on, and that’s leading this club, and these staff members, and the players in the short term,” Solomon said.

“So I don’t think it’s going to have any impact on me. And I can’t really speak on behalf of the players, but I’m sure we’re all locked into what we need to do right now.”

While some potential candidates are holding fire until the Bombers declare whether Hird is a candidate, former Sydney premiership coach John Longmire looms as a man of interest.

Longmire is also likely to be sounded out by the Blues, who last week announced a subcommittee to find Voss’ replacement.

Lloyd said it was important the Bombers ran an open process involving all interested candidates.

“You just hope the others they want to interview as well are willing to be interviewed. That’s what you hope for, that’s what the process is of the board. It’s going to be a big couple of weeks for them,” he said.

Hird is a friend and premiership teammate of Solomon, and has long respected his coaching and development abilities.

Welsh and chief executive Tim Roberts are working towards assembling a coaching sub-committee, with the job criteria to follow.

Hird was not asked about his coaching aspirations by co-host Jimmy Bartel on Footy Furnace on Nine, owned by this masthead, after the Bombers lost to the Eagles. But he backed Solomon to leave an “imprint” come Sunday’s clash against the Blues.

“I think it was tough going, interstate, obviously Dean got the job, what, four days ago. Pretty difficult to change too much, he had two assistant coaches leave on him, losing five of your most experienced players [to injuries], it was some ridiculous amount of games going out,” Hird said.

Assistant coach Ben Jacobs and psychologist Ben Robbins quit on Friday out of loyalty to Scott.

“So, not their best performance, but, hopefully, Dean with a whole week ahead of him now to prepare for the Carlton game, can put some things together, a game plan in place, imprint his name on the team, and good luck to him next week,” Hird said.

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