More MPs, or more unequal representation? Qld parliament’s big question

Queensland parliament needs to either boost MP numbers, better resource remote members, or allow greater variation in the number of voters within each seat, a major report has suggested.

The final shape of the state’s first electoral map redraw since 2017 was published by the Queensland Redistribution Commission on Monday, confirming two new and two abolished seats.

But alongside changes to 37 maps detailed in a March draft, and walking back two proposed name changes, the commission’s final report suggested the goalposts around the process need changing.

With population growth greatest in the south-east, the commission noted the number of large regional seats would need to drop below four in the “not too distant future” – even with the extra weighting applied to them.

“When that occurs, there will be even more strident calls for remedial action by those persons and organisations who claim they are being disadvantaged,” the commission said.

While noting it was not tasked with making recommendations around electoral law change, the commission said the number of submissions raising remote representation drove it to comment.

Laying out three observations, the commission suggested increasing the number of seats from 93 – a number last increased from 89 for the most recent redistribution in 2017.

“Although the population of Queensland is almost 500 per cent more than it was at the time of the 1949 redistribution when there were 75 electorates, the number of electorates has increased by only 25 per cent,” the commission said.

“Increasing the number of electoral districts, even very modestly, could provide some leeway to future Redistribution Commissions to minimise the impact on regional and remote electoral districts.

“It may be noted that unless the number of electorates were substantially increased, there could still be pressure placed on the sparsely populated electorates, with no guarantee the current four districts could be maintained.”

A submission from the Greens, one of 116 fielded as part of a multi-stage, year-long public consultation process heavy with political attacks, suggested 37 new seats would be needed by 2032 to take average voter enrolment numbers back to just 2017 levels.

Another option floated by the commission, made up of State Development director-general John Sosso, Electoral Commissioner Pat Vidgen and former judge Gregory Koppenol as chair, was an increase to allowances or resourcing for four MPs with electorates of more than 100,000 square-kilometres.

The commission also noted three “more contentious” options. Two included departing from post-Fitzgerald reforms of 1990 setting the size and 2 per cent enrolment weighting for those seats.

Without bipartisan support, law changes to decrease the size or lift the weighting would be “problematic” because of a “real risk the electoral system could be manipulated for partisan advantage”.

“The only question that may warrant further consideration in the future would be whether the tolerance of 10 per cent could be expanded to 15 per cent to give greater leeway to future Redistribution Commissions particularly in the context of variances in population growth between the regions,” the commission said.

As of September, 15 seats had enrolled voter numbers more than 10 per cent above or below the average of 40,188. Changes will mean all are now within that range, called the quota.

Proposed name changes for 17 electorates will go ahead, though the commission has decided to backtrack on altering the name of Coomera and Waterford.

Along with “moderate to significant” adjustments for 50 electorates, boundary changes include abolition of Katter’s Australian Party-held Hill in the state’s north and Labor-held Stretton in Brisbane’s south, and the creation of new seats Caboolture and Springfield.

Even still, five electorates of Caloundra, Coomera, Ipswich West, Morayfield and Redbank (formerly Bundamba) are projected to be more than 16 per cent – and up to 20 per cent – above the average enrolment by 2032 of 44,679.

Without law amendments by parliament to increase the number of seats, or one-third of seats falling outside the quota for more than two months, the next redistribution will happen after the 2032 election.

This year’s finalised redistribution will be in effect for the 2028 state election. Independent analysis of the earlier draft redistribution suggested those changes could net the LNP up to three new seats, and Labor as many as two fewer, with KAP MPs reduced to just one.

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