Popular support for One Nation in Victoria has stabilised at one in five voters, with Pauline Hanson’s party now entrenched as a “third force” in state politics ahead of the November election.
The latest Resolve Political Monitor, conducted for The Age in twin surveys in March and April, reveals that One Nation’s spectacular rise this year has settled to 21 per cent of the primary vote, making it the disruptor of choice for people who want a change of government or to upend the two-party system.
It also confirms strong public support for a royal commission into allegations of corruption and organised crime in the construction industry raised by this masthead and the CFMEU’s independent investigator Geoffrey Watson.
Watson has put the estimated cost to taxpayers of corruption on government-owned “Big Build” sites at $15 billion. Seven out of 10 of survey respondents – including 66 per cent of Labor voters – supported the establishment of a royal commission to get to the bottom of it.
In marginal seats, support was even higher at 75 per cent. Premier Jacinta Allan is resisting calls for an inquiry from anti-corruption campaigners, business groups and the opposition.
The latest survey lays bare the challenge before Labor to retain power on November 28 and for the Coalition to seize it. The major parties have drifted marginally in primary support since the last poll was published in February, with the government ticking down one point to 27 per cent and the Coalition softening to 29 per cent.
Both these variances are within the poll’s margin for error.
Resolve founder Jim Reed said the motivations for people shifting to One Nation were made clear in a focus group he conducted last month in Melbourne as part of the survey.
“One Nation voters are fed up with Labor and don’t like Jacinta Allan but think the Liberal Party is not in a position to win or govern either,” he said.
“For some people, backing One Nation is a tactical choice to vote out Labor. For others, it is a Trumpian ‘drain the swamp’ mentality that seeks to get rid of both major parties. Either way, people are voting for change.”
Unlike most polls which offer a snapshot of political sentiment at a given time, Resolve gauges the political mood over two surveys conducted a month apart and averages the results. The latest published results are the first full survey Resolve has produced which breaks out One Nation from the “others” category.
One Nation’s trajectory is made clear in the results of individual tracks taken from each of the past three months. While these results are reported from a smaller sample size, they show that support for One Nation has been stable, at between 19-23 per cent of the primary vote, between February and April.
The individual tracks also show support for Labor is edging into dangerous territory but remains above Allan’s nadir at the start of last year. The results for the Coalition suggest that its gains under new leader Jess Wilson were wiped by the outbreak of internal party feuding centred on Moira Deeming’s chaotic preselection earlier this month.
The survey indicates, consistent with other poll results, that One Nation’s shift from the fringe of Victorian politics to the main contest makes more difficult the Coalition’s quest to end 12 years of Labor rule and return to government.
When respondents who indicated support for One Nation were asked how they intended to direct their preferences, 71 per cent ticked the Coalition. This means that roughly, from every 10 votes One Nation picks up from the Liberal or National parties, three would end up in Labor’s column.
Leading into next month’s Nepean byelection, where the Liberal Party is trying to hold its seat against One Nation and an independent following the abrupt retirement of Sam Groth, the Coalition needs a net gain of 16 lower house seats at the November 28 state election to form government.
“One Nation have entrenched themselves as the third force in state politics now, reliably taking a fifth to a quarter of the primary vote over the past few months,” Reed said.
“This doesn’t mean that One Nation are going to suddenly form government, but they are making that mountain harder to climb for the Coalition and may help to keep Labor in power.”
This message has yet to sink in throughout the Victorian Liberal Party. While some state MPs recognise One Nation as a major barrier to winning government and, in the longer term, an existential threat to their 80-year-old centre-right party, others believe that One Nation winning regional and outer suburban seats from Labor opens a path to victory.
The Resolve survey, in which only 20 per cent of respondents nominated Allan as their preferred premier, affirms the unpopularity of the Labor leader and warm support for Wilson, whose likeability rating of plus 18 makes her the most popular Victorian Liberal in the five years since Resolve started polling.
Some 39 per cent of respondents nominated Wilson as their preferred premier, while 41 per cent said they were undecided. But her popularity, so far, is not being reflected in how people say they intend to vote.
Wilson is personally more popular than Brad Battin was or John Pesutto before him, but since Wilson took the leadership from Battin last November, primary support for the Coalition has collapsed from its previous, election-winning position.
The best news for Allan is that, while most voters don’t particularly like her, they prefer her as Labor leader to either of her purported internal rivals – Deputy Premier Ben Carroll and Transport Infrastructure Minister Gabrielle Williams.
When asked who would be their preferred candidate in the event of a Labor leadership challenge, 18 per cent nominated Allan while 13 per cent sided with Carroll and 10 per cent with Williams.
A whopping 59 per cent of respondents said they were unsure or liked none of the above.
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Chip Le Grand leads our state politics reporting team. He previously served as the paper’s chief reporter and is a journalist of 30 years’ experience.Connect via email.From our partners
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: www.smh.com.au
