TEHRAN — Donald Trump says the approaching U.S. elections will not change his position regarding Iran. Republican candidates are already changing theirs.
With three weeks remaining before the November 3 midterms, an unpopular war and its economic consequences are forcing the president’s party to defend Senate seats in states he carried comfortably in 2024, while Democrats press toward control of the House.
The retreat is visible in campaign spending and candidates’ language.
Republican money has been redirected from North Carolina to Kansas. Iowa Senate nominee Ashley Hinson has called for an “immediate end” to the war on Iran, despite repeatedly voting against House resolutions seeking that outcome.
Republicans are spending heavily in Texas, where Democrat James Talarico threatens Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Washington’s military decisions have become liabilities in places far removed from West Asia. Fuel, transportation, and agricultural costs give voters a daily measure of a war Trump continues to promise will end soon.
His party now has to answer for the difference between those assurances and household bills.
Trump’s economic argument undermined
Pew Research Center’s October 8 findings show how sharply public expectations have changed.
Among 5,062 adults that were surveyed between September 28 and October 4, 65 percent disapproved of Trump’s handling of military action against Iran; only 33 percent approved.
Republican and Republican-leaning approval fell from 69 percent in March to 63 percent. Democrats remained overwhelmingly opposed.
The public has also abandoned expectations of a short operation. In March, 43 percent believed the war would end within six months. Now, 47 percent expect it to continue for more than another year, and another 30 percent anticipate six to 12 additional months. Trump’s promises are running against an increasingly skeptical electorate.
Economic concerns help explain that skepticism. 73 percent expressed strong concern about higher gasoline and fuel prices caused by the war. 61 percent of Republicans shared that concern. Fear of American military casualties was almost as widespread, at 71 percent overall.
On October 9, the University of Michigan reported that consumer sentiment had fallen to 46.3, from September’s 48.1. Expected inflation over the next year reached 4.7 percent, compared with 3.4 percent in February before the U.S.-Israeli war began.
These are expectations, not measured inflation, but they show households anticipating further pressure. Lower-income consumers reported particularly steep declines in confidence.
Trump has promised that oil prices would “drop like a rock” once the war ended. For candidates approaching November 3, promised relief offers less protection than prices voters can actually see.
Republicans defend an expanding Senate map
Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority. Democrats need a net gain of four seats for outright control, which requires breakthroughs in states Trump won by double digits as well as successful defenses of their own seats.
The opportunity has widened, but the arithmetic remains difficult.
North Carolina provides one of the clearest Democratic openings. Former governor Roy Cooper faces former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley for retiring Senator Thom Tillis’s seat.
Polls published October 13 placed Cooper ahead by eight to 14 points. A major Republican super PAC has shifted resources toward Kansas, where Senator Roger Marshall faces Methodist pastor Adam Hamilton.
Texas demands a far larger Republican investment. Paxton defeated incumbent John Cornyn in the Republican contest with Trump’s backing.
Republicans have spent approximately $210 million on the Senate race, against Democrats’ $39 million, Reuters reported. Yet a ReconMR/Siena survey conducted October 5-8 put Talarico ahead 48-44 percent.
That result deserves attention without being mistaken for a victory. Texas has not elected a Democrat statewide since 1994. Paxton’s difficulties have given Democrats an opening, but Republicans retain enormous resources and a long-established advantage.
In Maine, Susan Collins faces former state Senate president Troy Jackson. A recent Washington Post-Schar School survey placed Jackson ahead 50-46 percent.
Alaska’s Dan Sullivan is defending against former representative Mary Peltola under ranked-choice voting.
In Ohio, former senator Sherrod Brown challenges Jon Husted, appointed after JD Vance became vice president.
Democrats need to protect Georgia and Michigan. Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff entered July with nearly $43 million available against Republican challenger Mike Collins’s $2.1 million.
Michigan’s Abdul El-Sayed faces former congressman Mike Rogers for retiring Senator Gary Peters’s seat, with recent surveys showing a competitive race despite Democratic leads.
Israel policy and money pouring in
Michigan brings the foreign policy dispute into an unusually direct view. During their debate on October 8, El-Sayed said Israel has lobbied Washington into the Iran war and challenged Rogers’s support for the war. “I don’t want to be pushed into a war by Israel, and I don’t want to be in a war with Iran,” he said.
His argument, which has become increasingly popular, confronts a longstanding assumption in Washington that close military alignment with Israel serves American security regardless of its regional consequences. It also gives anti-war voters a position more specific than general dissatisfaction with Trump.
The fight extends to campaign financing. Senator Bernie Sanders, who for years has tried to create a daylight between the current Netanyahu government and the Israeli regime in general, said in an October 2 post on X that AIPAC planned to spend $233 million “against candidates criticizing Benjamin Netanyahu’s government.”
El-Sayed won his primary despite extensive pro-Israel spending supporting opponent Haley Stevens.
Republicans have another powerful financial backer. Reuters reported on October 12 that Elon Musk had spent roughly $366 million during the election cycle, including $276 million since July, to help preserve Republican control.
His interests are tangible: House Democrats have called for investigations into his government contracts and work leading Trump’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency.
Offering accountability without a guaranteed reversal
Republican vulnerability reaches beyond the Senate. Analysts estimate that only 40 to 50 House districts are genuinely competitive, despite all 435 seats being contested.
Redistricting and partisan sorting limit the gains available even in a favorable Democratic year.
In 2018, Democrats gained 41 seats; analysts interviewed by Reuters now anticipate a considerably narrower majority if the party wins. State contests reinforce the uncertainty.
Texas Governor Greg Abbott faces Democrat Gina Hinojosa in a race, producing sharply different surveys. YouGov’s poll, conducted between September 28 and October 5, put Hinojosa ahead 48-47 percent; an earlier Fox News survey favored Abbott 52-47. Neither establishes a decisive advantage.
The October 12 raid of Representative Ilhan Omar’s Washington home added another dispute to the campaign.
U.S. federal agents, this time under Homeland Security Investigations, executed a court-approved warrant in a criminal investigation whose details remain limited.
Omar characterized the raid as a calculated effort to target political enemies and weaponize law enforcement, declaring that state intimidation would not silence her.
Ultimately, while a Democratic victory may yield incremental opportunities for limited oversight, it does not guarantee an immediate or automatic end to the war.
The House’s September 15 demand that Trump stop military action or obtain congressional authorization passed 220-204, with seven Republicans joining Democrats, but remains nonbinding.
American electoral discontent is measurable. However, enforceable restraint on American military aggression is still unproven and looks unlikely.
Although domestic electoral discontent can be readily documented, effective and enforceable restraint on U.S. military action remains elusive and improbable.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: tehrantimes.com
