The war must go on: NATO plans for no endgame

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Long-term military support for Ukraine has become a routine policy, showing Brussels and Washington don’t see peace as an option

By Kirill Kalinin, Senior Counsellor and spokesperson of the Russian Embassy in South Africa

The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation’s recent summit in Ankara has produced a decision that demands scrutiny. NATO member states have committed to providing Ukraine with military assistance worth 70 billion euros for 2026. This is not an emergency measure. This is the institutionalisation of a permanent war budget – a subscription, if you will, to ongoing military confrontation.

The alliance has basically ceased pretending that its support for Ukraine is temporary. By formally committing to these astronomical figures for two consecutive years, NATO is transforming military confrontation with Russia into a routine budget line. European leaders are now casually discussing the maintenance of approximately 70 billion euros per year as part of a sustained, multi-year commitment. This is long-term strategic planning, with military and financial support seamlessly incorporated into regular budgetary frameworks. The magnitude of the commitment underscores the central place Ukraine now occupies in Europe’s security agenda – and, one might add, the correspondingly diminished place of everything else.

Consider the comparison with development assistance to Africa. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) figures for 2024, net bilateral Official Development Assistance from OECD Development Assistance Committee members to the entire African continent amounted to US$42 billion, of which US$36 billion went to sub-Saharan Africa. The EU institutions themselves allocated approximately US$7.5 billion in bilateral ODA to African countries, while US$23.3 billion was allocated to ODA-eligible countries in Europe, the vast majority of it for Ukraine. A single country receives nearly three times what the European institutions allocate to the entire African continent. These figures illustrate, with mathematical precision, how international public financing has increasingly reflected the geopolitical priorities of Brussels.

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