Nearly nine in ten chief economists surveyed anticipate a weakening in global growth over the coming year, though only 13% expect a global recession.
According to the World Economic Forum survey, 94% foresee rising global inflation due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is pushing up energy and food costs and disrupting supply chains.
While 92% expect greater AI adoption over the next year, optimism regarding the pace of productivity gains across industries has moderated.
Read the full Chief Economists’ Outlook here.
Find out more about the Annual Meeting of the New Champions 2026 here, and follow on social media using #amnc26, #2026夏季达沃斯 and #innovation26.
The global economic outlook has worsened markedly in recent weeks, according to the latest World Economic Forum Chief Economists’ Outlook published today.
Nearly nine in ten chief economists expect global growth to weaken over the next 12 months. This marks a reversal of the cautious optimism seen at the beginning of the year, driven by conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which have raised fears of a significant global economic shock.
Chief economists now view the current disruption from the Strait of Hormuz as considerably more damaging than last year’s tariff issues. Should the closure continue into the second half of the year, its effects could rival the severity of the COVID-19 crisis, with major repercussions for global supply chains, energy prices and food costs. A striking 94% of those surveyed expect global inflation to rise over the coming year.
“Only months ago, the Chief Economists community was cautiously optimistic. The conflict in the Middle East has altered that outlook, and the economic damage already sustained is expected to linger for months ahead,” said Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director, World Economic Forum.
“The longer the disruption lasts, the greater the long-term cost for those least able to bear it.”
Uneven Regional Outlook
The Middle East and North Africa region is expected to be the hardest hit. Previously seen as one of the more promising areas, 88% of chief economists now anticipate weak or very weak growth there – the sharpest downturn in regional expectations in the survey.
The picture elsewhere is mixed. Inflation expectations have risen sharply in sub-Saharan Africa, now the highest among all regions surveyed.
Europe faces growing risks of stagflation amid weakening growth and rising inflation concerns.
In contrast, India and the United States are expected to show greater resilience, supported by strong domestic demand and investment.
Low Recession Risk but Elevated Volatility
Despite the deterioration, the survey does not signal a major global downturn. Most chief economists do not expect a recession in the next 12 months, although they see limited prospects for the economy becoming more resilient soon. The duration of the Strait of Hormuz disruption will be critical: a shorter shock could allow for recovery, while a prolonged closure would intensify pressure on the global economy.
Financial markets are likely to face greater strain, with 79% of respondents anticipating increased volatility in private debt markets over the next year amid emerging stress in private credit. Additionally, 74% expect higher volatility in public debt markets and 68% foresee rising stock market volatility.
AI Optimism Remains Strong but Tempered
Artificial intelligence continues to offer significant tailwinds, with 92% of chief economists expecting increased AI adoption over the coming year. However, expectations about the speed of productivity improvements have cooled. Meaningful gains are now projected to take longer in nearly all industries compared with views expressed in January 2026. Only information technology and education have maintained steady expectations, while the most notable delays are anticipated in engineering, construction, utilities, medical, healthcare and care services.
About the Chief Economists’ Outlook
The Chief Economists’ Outlook draws on consultations and surveys with leading chief economists from the public and private sectors, coordinated by the World Economic Forum’s Centre for the New Economy and Society. The survey for this edition was conducted between 6 and 17 April 2026. The report supports the Forum’s Future of Growth Initiative, which fosters dialogue between business and government on growth in the new economy.
About the Annual Meeting of the New Champions 2026
The 17th Annual Meeting of the New Champions will take place from 23 to 25 June 2026 in Dalian, People’s Republic of China, under the theme “Innovating at Scale”. The meeting will bring together 1,500 cross-sector leaders to explore how innovation and emerging technologies can unlock new growth models and drive positive economic momentum in a fast-shifting global landscape.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: dailysquib.co.uk
