The WNBA Finals return to the Bay Area with the series tied 2-2, and Monday night’s contest is the definition of a “swing game.”
Golden State clawed back after two straight losses, delivering a defensive masterclass in Game 4, smothering the Dream and locking down Angel Reese to win 67-62.
Now the Valkyries return home with all the momentum on their side.
Atlanta is searching for answers. After dominant showings in Games 2 and 3, they simply couldn’t get their offense going enough to take a pivotal 3-1 lead.
Oddsmakers have this contest as essentially a pick ‘em, with the Valkyries at -112 on the moneyline and the Dream at -104. The total sits at 150.5 points.
Dream vs. Valkyries Game 5 prediction, best bets
Head coach Natalie Nakase made some lineup changes, and they worked perfectly for Golden State.
Gabby Williams remained the catalyst for the Valkyries and her team-high 17 points, along with Tiffany Haynes’ clutch 13 second-half points, sealed Game 4 for them.
Turnovers and missed opportunities at the charity stripe plagued the Dream last time out, as they turned the ball over 18 times leading to 16 points from the Valkyries.
However, a few trends still suggest they’re still in the series.
For starters, over on DraftKings Sportsbook, the Dream remain slight -115 favorites to win the series after the Valkyries opened at -125, but their line has since narrowed to -105.
Atlanta’s defense has done its job, limiting Golden State to under 71 points in all four games thanks to a stout 95.3 rating. As great a scorer as Williams has been for Golden State, she is shooting just 30.3% from the field and 22.6% from beyond the arc because of the Dream’s tenacious defense.
The margins of victory in Atlanta’s wins make the contrast even clearer. When the Dream win, they have dominated, winning by 26 and 14 points, respectively. Golden State’s victories have come by just 9 points combined.
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I expect Reese and Atlanta to get back in the win column.
The Valkyries’ Game 4 adjustments helped, but the Dream will almost certainly be ready to counter them this time around.
The Play: Dream moneyline (-103, bet365) | Angel Reese to record a double-double (-190, DraftKings)
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Mike Turay is a sports journalist and editor who closely follows the NBA, NFL, college sports and UFC. He has demonstrated expertise in both NBA and NFL player prop bets for nearly three years. Mike is also highly knowledgeable about the sportsbook offer landscape, frequently trying and reviewing the latest apps and sites.
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