John Deere Classic betting guide: 9 picks our expert loves this week

As a milestone American birthday approaches, where better to be this week than the heartland?

It is the annual trip to the Quad Cities area for the John Deere Classic in Silvis, Ill., one last State-side stop before we go overseas for the Scottish Open and then the season’s final major, the Open Championship.

Established in 1971, the John Deer Classic has made its home at TPC Deere Run since D.A. Weibring designed the course in 2000. Like last week’s Travelers Championship, this event typically draws large and enthusiastic crowds. The fields are not always star-spangled but fireworks often show up in the way of birdie barrages and long-shot winners, some of them destined to become big names.

The golf course is a par 71 that measures just over 7,300 yards. There are 11 par 4s, four par 3s, and three par 5s. The fairways are wide, bordered by very penal rough, and the Bentgrass greens are large and fast. The formula around here is pretty straightforward. Neither distance nor accuracy off the tee has proven to be a must. This event is more about approach play, hitting greens in regulation, being a demon with the wedges, finding a hot putter for a few days, and racking up a bunch of birdies. Over the last 10 editions of this tournament, the average winning score is 22-under par.

As far as correlated courses, I believe we can go back to where we were last week at TPC River Highlands. I also used Detroit Golf Club (Rocket Classic); TPC Craig Ranch (Byron Nelson); Black Desert Resort in Southern Utah (Black Desert Championship), and a pair of recent Canadian Open venues, Oakdale Golf & Country Club and TPC Toronto.

In the hopes of pyrotechnics, I have put nine outright-to-win wagers on the card this week, though I’ll temper that by noting that the overall outlay is low to normal, as most of my selections are the darkest of dark horses. 

In line with the holiday weekend, let’s see if we can stumble upon something explosive.

Mitchell is our lone selection from near the top of this week’s board. He is one of the best players in this field and I like the way he has been going of late. He has one career win on the PGA Tour has come close to adding a second on several occasions. This might finally be the time and place. Mitchell has finished as high as seventh here in the past and was fifth at TPC Craig Ranch last month. He was also brilliant just two weeks ago, finishing fourth at the U.S. Open. Over the last 24 rounds, he is fourth in this field for Birdie or Better Percentage and is 14^th for Strokes Gained: Par 4s.

Ryo Hisatsune (50-1)

Hisatune is still looking for his first PGA Tour win, but he hasn’t missed a cut since the Sony Open in January. He is arguably the best ball striker in this field. It will be up to the putter if he figures on contending. He ranks second on Tour in Total Birdies.

Andrew Novak (50-1)

Novak’s lone Tour victory came in the team event in New Orleans two years ago. He’s still seeking his fist individual title. He, too, is a premier ball strike. He hasn’t ever missed a cut here in three tries and finished seventh in 2024. Novak was ninth at Oakdale in 2023 and 14^th at TPC Toronto in 2024.

Taylor Moore (80-1)

Moore knows how to win, having have done so at the Valspar Championship in 2023. He finished runner-up earlier this season at the Cognizant Classic and is fresh off a top 15 last mont at TPC Craig Ranch. He has finished sixth, fourth, and 10^th at Detroit Golf Club and ranks 10^th in this field over the last 24 rounds for Birdies or Better Percentage. He is 26^th in this field for SG: Putting (Bentgrass).

Kevin Yu (80-1)

Another ball striker extraordinaire who has shown good form of late. Yu’s last start was a top 30 finish at TPC Toronto, where he was sixth in that field for SG: Off the Tee, eighth for SG: Approach, and was No. 1 that week for Greens in Regulation. He took third at TPC Toronto in 2025. He’s never finished worse than 21^st at Deere Run and was sixth in 2023. Over the last 24-rounds, Yu ranks seventh in this field for Birdie or Better Percentage and is 17^th for SG: Par 4s.

Ben Kohles (80-1)

Earlier this month, Kohles won for the fifth time in his career on the Korn Ferry Tour and followed that up with a top 25 finish at Shinnecock Hills at the U.S. Open. He’s been top 20 at Black Desert and at the Rocket Mortgage in Detroit, and was runner-up at TPC Craig Ranch in 2024. He is especially accurate off the tee and ranks second in this field in SG: Approach over the last 24-rounds.

Jimmy Stanger (225-1)

Time to venture into the deep, dark, depths of the betting board. Stanger made a splash just a few weeks ago at TPC Toronto where he finished fourth. He is long off the tee and elite with the putter putter. Stanger finished No. 1 in that field in Canada for SG: Putting for the week and was 10^th in Greens in Regulation.

Erik van Rooyan (275-1)

EVR always seems to be at or near the top of the leaderboard in ol’-fashioned birdies fests. That’s in part because he ranks 15^th in this field for SG: Putting (Bentgrass) and is 10^th for Birdie or Better Percentage over the last 24-rounds. He missed eight cuts in a row to begin this season but has since made seven straight, including 19^th at the Byron Nelson and 20^th at TPC Toronto. Van Rooyan was runner-up at the Nelson in 2024 and sixth at the Rocket Classic that same season.

Tyler Duncan (400-1)

Hailing from the Midwest, Duncan is familiar with this part of the country and has finished as high as 12^th at TPC Deere Run. He’s accurate off the tee, dials in the approach shots from 75-150 yards, and possesses a deft short game, ranking 11^th in this field for Scrambling over the last 24-rounds and is 33^rd for SG: Putting (Bentgrass).