Southwest Monsoon Delay Explained: Why Kerala Missed Early Onset & What It Means For North India?

India’s southwest monsoon has suffered an unexpected delay after a cyclonic system developing over the Bay of Bengal disrupted the atmospheric conditions necessary for its advance, prompting the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to revise its forecast for Kerala. The monsoon, which was earlier expected to arrive around May 26, is now likely to make landfall between June 2 and June 4, according to updated IMD projections. The delay comes as large parts of the country continue to battle intense summer heat, increasing anticipation for seasonal rainfall that is crucial for agriculture, water resources and relief from soaring temperatures.

Cyclonic Activity Slows Monsoon Winds

Meteorologists say the delay has been triggered by a cyclonic circulation over the Bay of Bengal that interfered with the large-scale wind patterns driving the southwest monsoon.

The Bay of Bengal plays a critical role in shaping monsoon movement across India. When cyclones develop in the region, they tend to pull surrounding winds toward themselves, weakening the steady monsoon flow that normally progresses northward.

Experts note that similar interruptions have occurred in previous years, including 2013 and 2021, when cyclonic systems caused temporary slowdowns in the monsoon’s advance.

This year’s delay became more noticeable because the original forecast had predicted an unusually early onset.

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Heavy Rain In Kerala Not Official Monsoon

Several parts of Kerala, including Thiruvananthapuram, have already received significant rainfall over recent days. However, the IMD clarified that these showers should not be interpreted as the formal onset of the southwest monsoon.

According to weather officials, the current rain activity is largely linked to the cyclonic circulation over the south Arabian Sea and adjoining areas rather than the full-scale monsoon system.

Earlier, the IMD had forecast the onset date with an error margin of plus or minus four days, leaving some room for fluctuations in atmospheric conditions.

#WATCH | Keralam: Thiruvananthapuram city receives rainfall. IMD says that the monsoon may not arrive in the state immediately, as the monsoon winds have weakened. A cyclonic circulation is persisting over the south Arabian Sea and nearby regions, which is causing the current… pic.twitter.com/d1xZkSdtG3

— ANI (@ANI) May 28, 2026

The southwest monsoon remains one of India’s most important weather systems, accounting for nearly 75 percent of the country’s annual rainfall and supporting an agricultural sector that employs close to half of India’s workforce.

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What It Means For North India

The delayed arrival in Kerala has raised concerns among residents in northern India, particularly in Delhi-NCR and surrounding regions experiencing severe heatwave conditions.

At present, weather experts do not foresee a major delay in the monsoon’s arrival over northern states. Historically, the monsoon reaches Delhi around June 27, and current projections suggest it could still arrive between June 25 and June 30.

Meteorologists say that once the monsoon establishes itself over Kerala, it can often move rapidly across the country if weather conditions remain favourable.

Until then, north India is expected to witness pre-monsoon activity such as thunderstorms, gusty winds and isolated rain showers. While these conditions may provide temporary relief from extreme temperatures, they are unlikely to deliver the sustained cooling associated with the full monsoon season.

Outlook Remains Closely Watched

Weather agencies and climate experts are closely monitoring the evolving cyclonic activity to assess whether the current delay remains temporary or develops into a larger disruption of India’s monsoon cycle.

For millions dealing with prolonged heat across several states, even brief rainfall spells are expected to offer some respite as the country waits for the southwest monsoon to regain momentum.

Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: abplive.com