Wellington beat Napoleon by picking the right venue. South Africa could do the same to Australia

Wellington won at Waterloo by picking ground that took away Napoleon’s greatest weapon – speed.

Cricket South Africa looks to have done something similar for Australia’s Test tour: Durban, Gqeberha (East London), Cape Town – and no Wanderers ground in Johannesburg.

That’s not scheduling by accident. That’s a board that has looked hard at 25 years of results and decided the “Bullring” in Johannesburg isn’t the fortress everyone assumes it is, not against Australia anyway.

I’ve heard commentators talk up Johannesburg as if it’s still 1996, some unconquerable stronghold. The record says otherwise. Australia flogged South Africa there in 2002.

The stars were Hayden, Martyn and Gilchrist, with a monstrous double-hundred, against an attack that had Donald, Ntini, Kallis and Nel in it. Australia won again in 2006, with Hussey grinding it out, Martyn making runs when it mattered and Lee chipping in with the bat at the end.

And I still remember watching an eighteen-year-old Pat Cummins take seven wickets there on debut in 2011, six of them in the second innings, before he and Mitchell Johnson saw Australia home.

Three visits, three wins. So that’s certainly no fortress. In fact, you could label Jo’burg as our happy hunting ground.

South Africa’s real strongholds are Newlands and Centurion, where the ball talks.

Take Johannesburg off the itinerary, and you’ve taken away the one place Australia’s quicks could bowl the way they like: hit the deck, let the pitch do the rest, no need to work too hard for it.

That’s the whole point of going to the coast. The altitude in Johannesburg means thinner air, and deliveries from fast bowlers hit the bat with real venom.

Drop to sea level, and the equation changes: heavier air, more moisture, sea breezes and, suddenly, it’s not about raw pace, it’s about which way the ball’s going to duck about at 130 clicks.

Durban will offer some early juice off the pitch. South Africa have only won 16 of 46 Tests there, but Australia have had joy, six wins from 11. It’s the kind of wicket where an opening batter has to graft through the first hour before it settles down.

Gqeberha is a different beast: dry, abrasive, gets old quickly, and once it does, reverse swing comes into play earlier than you’d get inland. South Africa have won at close to 50 per cent there, and I’d put that down to the conditions as much as personnel.

And then there’s Newlands, South Africa’s best ground by the numbers: 28 wins from 61 Tests. It moves around early under the mountain and then flattens out for those willing to graft.

Put all that together, and you can see exactly why Cricket South Africa built the tour this way.

Rabada, Ngidi, Jansen and Maharaj are all bowlers who thrive when the ball’s doing something in the air or off the seam, not bowlers who need raw pace and bounce to be dangerous.

Rabada, in particular, is a serious operator at home. He has taken 198 wickets in 37 Tests at just over 20, and at a strike rate most quicks in history would gladly take. South Africa’s worry is whether he and Ngidi are fit enough to get through it. Both were ruled out of the recent one-day matches.

Australia, meanwhile, go into this series without Usman Khawaja for the first time in a long while, and that matters more than people might realise.

Khawaja’s whole method was built for exactly this kind of tour: patient, unflustered, happy to leave the good ball and wait for the bad one. Travis Head takes over as the senior man now, but his game is the opposite of Khawaja’s.

He likes to take the attack to the bowler, and that’s a riskier proposition when the ball’s nibbling around at sea level rather than sitting up to be hit. Matt Renshaw comes back in to open, and he’ll need to find some of that old Khawaja patience in himself.

The No.3 spot is the one to watch. Does Marnus Labuschagne keep his place, or does Steve Smith come up to face the new ball? I wouldn’t want South Africa’s attack anywhere near Smith with the ball still hard and moving. He is too valuable to expose that early.

My guess is Labuschagne holds the spot, takes the shine off the ball and lets Head and Smith bat around him.

Labuschagne’s got more than conditions to deal with, though. He has been in one of those trots where every run feels like it is being dragged out of him, and there’s a balance he needs to strike.

Survival’s the job, but he can’t simply shut up shop either. His runs, or lack of them, decide how much strike Head and Smith get. And that’s what will shape this series as much as anything South Africa throw at them.

Australia’s batters need to understand the upcoming Test venues aren’t Johannesburg. You can’t stand tall and pull the short ball the way you might up on the Highveld. The ball just doesn’t get up enough.

It’s about getting forward, playing straighter and accepting that one loose stroke against the moving ball can end in a nick to slip or a shout for lbw. It’s a different kind of examination altogether, and it’ll show up any technical deficiencies.

Wellington didn’t beat Napoleon with brute force. He picked the ground and let the mud do the rest.

South Africa have tried much the same trick here. Whether it comes off will depend on their best bowlers being fit, but full credit to them for having the nerve to plan it this way.